The countdown has already begun, and less than a month remains for the biggest World Cup of all time.
With 48 national teams, 104 matches, and 16 cities across the United States, Mexico, and Canada, the World Cup is the most ambitious football summer ever attempted.
FIFA promises an event that will remain indelible in the memory of the planet. "It is the biggest event humanity has ever seen and will ever see," declares Infantino, going even further, claiming that 6 billion people - almost 3/4 of the world's population - will turn, one way or another, to this tournament.
From June 11 to July 19, the world will seem to freeze for the sake of football.
Wars, geopolitical tensions, Trump's threats, fears of boycotts, visa problems, exorbitant ticket prices; yet, there is something else that bothers the organization more than anything else. Literally. The heatwave!
The World Cup will be held in the shadow of the climate crisis, with high temperatures expected to directly affect both the performance of footballers and the safety of fans.
A new scientific study warns that approximately 25% of the tournament's matches may be played under conditions of dangerous heat stress, while the risk of extreme heat has almost doubled compared to the 1994 World Cup in the United States.
The research was conducted by scientists from the World Weather Attribution (WWA), who analyzed historical data on temperature, humidity, solar radiation, and wind intensity to estimate the conditions that will prevail during the matches.
The scientists based their findings on the WBGT (Wet Bulb Globe Temperature) measurement, which is used internationally in sports to assess thermal stress on the human body.
This specific unit takes into account not only air temperature but also humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed.
According to the study, in 26 out of the 104 total matches of the tournament, there is a high probability of exceeding the 26 degrees Celsius WBGT limit, which is considered dangerous for athletes' health.
In 5 matches, in fact, the 28 degrees WBGT limit is expected to be exceeded, which corresponds to approximately 38 degrees of dry heat or 30 degrees with very high humidity.
The international professional footballers' association FIFPRO believes that at 26 degrees WBGT, mandatory breaks for cooling and hydration are required, while at 28 degrees, it even suggests postponing or delaying matches.
The researchers compared the same data with the 1994 World Cup, when the tournament was again hosted in the United States, and concluded that the risk of extreme thermal conditions has almost doubled due to climate change caused mainly by the burning of fossil fuels.
As noted, in 1994 the global climate was about 0.7 degrees cooler than today.
The most exposed national teams
The national team expected to face the most difficult conditions is Portugal, as all 3 of its group stage matches have an 80% probability of exceeding the 26 degrees WBGT (special thermal stress index) limit.
Followed by:
- Netherlands – 74%
- Saudi Arabia – 74%
- Cape Verde – 74%
The case of Spain
For Spain, 2 of its 3 group stage matches, which will be held in Atlanta, have a 23% probability of exceeding 26 degrees WBGT (special thermal stress index), while the 3rd match in Guadalajara, Mexico, presents no significant thermal risk.
| Opponent | Date – City – Time | Cooling measures | Above 26°C | Above 28°C | Above 30°C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cape Verde | June 15 – Atlanta – 12:00 | Air conditioning | 23.0% | 2.8% | 0.1% |
| Saudi Arabia | June 21 – Atlanta – 12:00 | Air conditioning | 23.0% | 2.8% | 0.1% |
| Uruguay | June 26 – Guadalajara – 20:00 | — | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The case of Argentina
Argentina faces an even greater risk. In the match against Austria in Dallas (June 22, 13:00), there is a 100% probability of exceeding 26 degrees WBGT (special thermal stress index) and a 21.6% probability of exceeding 28 degrees.
| Opponent | Date – City – Time | Cooling measures | Above 26°C | Above 28°C | Above 30°C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algeria | June 16 – Kansas City – 21:00 | — | 13.8% | 3.0% | 0.1% |
| Austria | June 22 – Dallas – 13:00 | Air conditioning | 100.0% | 21.6% | 1.9% |
| Jordan | June 27 – Dallas – 22:00 | Air conditioning | 24.1% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
The case of Colombia
Colombia faces a serious risk in only one match, against Portugal in Miami, where there is a 40.1% chance of exceeding the safety limit. This particular stadium does not have an air conditioning system.
| Opponent | Date – City – Time | Cooling measures | Above 26°C | Above 28°C | Above 30°C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uzbekistan | June 17 – Mexico City – 22:00 | — | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| DR Congo | June 23 – Guadalajara – 22:00 | — | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Portugal | June 27 – Miami – 19:30 | — | 40.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
The "hottest" matches of the World Cup
The matches with the highest probability of extreme heat stress are as follows:
| Match | Venue | Time | Cooling measures | Above 26°C | Above 28°C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany – Curaçao | Houston | 13:00 | Air conditioning | 100% | 32.1% |
| Netherlands – Japan | Dallas | 16:00 | Air conditioning | 100% | 29.2% |
| Saudi Arabia – Uruguay | Miami | 18:00 | — | 100% | 1.5% |
| Argentina – Austria | Dallas | 13:00 | Air conditioning | 100% | 21.6% |
| Scotland – Brazil | Miami | 18:00 | — | 100% |
1.5%
|
The most difficult venues
Out of the 16 cities that will host matches, the most problematic in terms of heat are considered:
- Houston
- Dallas
- Atlanta
All 3 are located in the United States and have stadiums with air conditioning, which partially reduces the risk, but does not eliminate it.
Final with thermal risk
The grand final is scheduled for July 19 in New York, at 15:00 local time.
The study estimates that there is a 12.3% chance of exceeding the dangerous 26-degree WBGT limit and a 1 in 37 chance of exceeding 28 degrees, conditions that could even lead to a delay in kickoff.
In 1994, the same probability was 1 in 56, a fact that clearly reflects the worsening of conditions.
Mandatory breaks and the economic dimension
For the first time in the history of the institution, FIFA decided to impose mandatory 3-minute breaks in the middle of each half - approximately in the 22nd and 67th minute - in all matches, regardless of temperature, time, stadium, or the presence of air conditioning.
The decision provoked reactions. Many argue that the problem could be dealt with more simply if matches were scheduled for evening hours, when temperatures are lower.
However, television broadcasts and huge financial interests do not allow such a change.
Peak European viewership hours necessitate midday and afternoon matches in the Americas, as FIFA is expected to collect approximately 3.9 billion dollars solely from television rights.
At the same time, hydration breaks also create new high-value commercial television space.
It is estimated that a 30-second commercial spot in the final can reach up to 500,000 euros.
Climate crisis changes football
Experts estimate that in the future, more and more World Cups will be held either in colder geographical zones or during the winter months, as happened in Qatar in 2022.
Climate change is no longer a theoretical threat to football, but is already directly affecting the organization of the planet's biggest sporting event, turning heat into another opponent that national teams are called upon to face.